New Jersey is still a seller's market in 9 of the 12 counties I track. Supply is under 4 months almost everywhere, and homes statewide are selling at 101.0% of asking. The extra summer heat is gone, though. In July, nine counties were running hotter than their usual July. August had four, and September had none.
The statewide median is $558,395, still up 2.3% year over year. What changed is momentum. Price growth is the weakest most counties have seen for a September in years. Inventory set another 2026 high at 32,962 active listings (+9.0%), its seventh straight monthly increase. And 30-year mortgage rates climbed from 6.66% to above 7% during the month.
September 2026 at a glance
- NJ statewide median $558,395 (+2.3% YoY)
- 44 days on market
- 101.0% sale-to-list
- 32,962 active listings (+9.0%, a 2026 high)
- 9 of 12 counties still Seller's Markets (down from 11)
- Zero running hotter than usual (down from nine in July)
- 30-year rate 7.40% (week of Oct 15)
Data note: All figures in this report reflect September 2026 data sourced from the Redfin Data Center. Mortgage rates are Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED. Published October 15, 2026.
New this month: two measures instead of one score.
Market Type shows who has the leverage. It's months of supply, the industry standard: under 4 months is a Seller's Market, 4–6 Balanced, over 6 a Buyer's Market.
Market Temperature (0–100) shows whether a county is heating up or cooling down. It compares each county with the same month over its past 10 years, leaving out the 2020–2022 pandemic frenzy. 50 is typical for this county in September; over 60 is hotter than usual, under 40 cooler.
Earlier reports used a single combined score and remain as published.
Still a seller's market, but no county is running hot
| Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seller's Markets (under 4 months of supply) | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 |
| Running hotter than usual (temperature over 60) | 6 | 9 | 4 | 0 |
Read the two rows together. Supply is still tight (Morris 2.5 months, Monmouth 2.6, Somerset 2.8), so sellers hold the leverage in most counties. Compared with a normal September, though, no county is overheating anymore. July was the peak: Passaic (72), Morris (69), Monmouth (69), Essex (67), Bergen (66), Union (65), Ocean (62), Somerset (61), and Burlington (61) were all hotter than their usual July. By September every one of them had cooled back to typical.
Months of supply isn't seasonally adjusted, and it loosens every fall and spring (the count was 8–9 last spring, too). The temperature row compares September with past Septembers, so it shows this cooling is more than the usual seasonal dip.
Morris County is still the tightest market of the 12: 2.5 months of supply, a 27-day DOM (median days on market), and 103.0% of asking. Its temperature of 60 is also the highest, right at the line after running hot all summer (68–69). Median $673K (+2.0% YoY).
Union County (2.9 months) cooled from 62 to 55. Its median is $659K (+3.2% YoY), with a 27-day DOM and 102.6% sale-to-list, down from about 104.5% in August.
Monmouth County (2.6 months) cooled from 63 to 55 despite a 25-day DOM, the fastest this month. Price is the drag: +1.2% YoY is soft for Monmouth in September.
Don't read much into the month-over-month medians. Morris's median dropped from $754K in August to $673K in September, Union's from $725K to $659K, and Bergen's from $836K to $761K (August figures as revised by Redfin). That looks alarming, but September is when the summer's larger, pricier closings taper off. Compare year over year instead, and Morris and Union are still up 2–3%.
Sellers in the nine Seller's Markets still have the leverage. Buyers are paying less over asking than they did in August, though: even in Essex, sale-to-list fell from 107.0% to 104.4%. I'd price close to recent comps and not count on a summer-style bidding war to lift the number.
What's cooling is price, not demand
The temperature is the average of three factors, each scored the same way (50 is typical for the county in September):
- Demand is still above normal almost everywhere (52–74). Homes are selling quickly and above asking in most counties.
- Supply is about normal for September everywhere except Hudson (51–66). The record-tight inventory of 2023–2025 is gone, but NJ isn't flooded either.
- Price growth is the weak spot, at or below typical everywhere except Hudson (1–50). Six counties are slightly negative year over year.
So buyers are still showing up and paying asking, but they've stopped bidding prices up the way they did the last three years.
Where buyers have the most room
Three counties are now Balanced by supply.
Hudson (6.0 months) has its loosest September supply since 2020 and is one tick from Buyer's Market territory. Homes there sell right at asking (100.1%), and Hudson posted the highest price gain of the 12 at +11.4% YoY ($752K). Prices are up sharply, but Hudson buyers have more listings to choose from and less pressure to bid over list than that gain suggests.
Middlesex (4.0 months) has the longest DOM at 75 days, with 3,179 listings, and one of the two coolest temperatures (44). Buyers in Edison, New Brunswick, and Piscataway can shop at their own pace.
Bergen (4.1 months) is the priciest county at $761K (−1.2% YoY) and one of the slowest at 73 days on market, so high-end buyers there can compare listings and take their time.
Two Seller's Markets, Mercer and Ocean, are softer than their supply numbers suggest.
Mercer (3.6 months, temperature 44) posted the largest price decline at −3.5% YoY ($434K), and its DOM rose to 48 days. Its Zillow 12-month forecast is also the weakest, at +0.6%. Supply is still tight, but its temperature is tied with Middlesex for the coolest (the low end of typical). Princeton-corridor buyers may find more room to negotiate there than in the hotter counties.
Ocean (3.5 months, temperature 45) is still the only county closing below asking (99.1%), and it carries the most inventory (3,966 listings). It cooled from 78 in June to 45 now, the biggest cool-down of any county since June.
Passaic (3.6 months, 45) sends mixed signals. It has the weakest price momentum (median −2.5% YoY to $585K) but the strongest demand (33-day DOM, 103.4% sale-to-list). Well-priced Passaic homes still move fast; overpriced ones don't.
Essex County (3.9 months, temperature 59) still closes furthest above asking, at 104.4% sale-to-list (down from 107.0% in August), on a median of $706K (+5.6%).
The rate spike September's data hasn't felt yet
The biggest change this fall, mortgage rates, doesn't show up in the Redfin numbers yet.
| Week | 30-yr fixed | 15-yr fixed |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 27 | 6.66% | 5.98% |
| Sep 3 | 6.71% | 6.04% |
| Sep 10 | 6.76% | 6.09% |
| Sep 17 | 6.95% | 6.26% |
| Sep 24 | 7.03% | 6.42% |
| Oct 1 | 7.28% | 6.60% |
| Oct 8 | 7.40% | 6.73% |
| Oct 15 | 7.40% | 6.71% |
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey via FRED.
Most September closings went under contract in July and August, when rates were in the mid-6s, so the cooling in this report happened before the rate jump fully hit. On a $558K home with 20% down, the move from 6.66% to 7.40% adds roughly $220/month to principal and interest. That's enough to push some buyers to the sidelines and make others negotiate harder.
If rates hold above 7%, I'd expect temperatures to keep falling, and Hudson could become the first Buyer's Market of the year.
If your pre-approval dates from late August, I'd have your lender rerun it at 7.40%.
Full county breakdown, September 2026
| County | Type (mo. supply) | Temp. Aug→Sep | Median | YoY | DOM (days) | Sale/List | Listings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bergen | Balanced (4.1) | 59 → 51 | $761K | −1.2% | 73 | 102.4% | 3,552 |
| Burlington | Seller's (2.9) | 50 → 45 | $400K | −2.1% | 37 | 100.5% | 1,874 |
| Essex | Seller's (3.9) | 60 → 59 | $706K | +5.6% | 42 | 104.4% | 2,251 |
| Hudson | Balanced (6.0) | 61 → 59 | $752K | +11.4% | 50 | 100.1% | 2,505 |
| Mercer | Seller's (3.6) | 46 → 44 | $434K | −3.5% | 48 | 100.1% | 1,392 |
| Middlesex | Balanced (4.0) | 41 → 44 | $559K | +1.6% | 75 | 100.9% | 3,179 |
| Monmouth | Seller's (2.6) | 63 → 55 | $734K | +1.2% | 25 | 100.7% | 2,542 |
| Morris | Seller's (2.5) | 68 → 60 | $673K | +2.0% | 27 | 103.0% | 1,476 |
| Ocean | Seller's (3.5) | 51 → 45 | $489K | −0.3% | 32 | 99.1% | 3,966 |
| Passaic | Seller's (3.6) | 56 → 45 | $585K | −2.5% | 33 | 103.4% | 1,399 |
| Somerset | Seller's (2.8) | 50 → 54 | $634K | −0.5% | 31 | 101.2% | 1,102 |
| Union | Seller's (2.9) | 62 → 55 | $659K | +3.2% | 27 | 102.6% | 1,337 |
Note: Market Type: under 4 months of supply = Seller's, 4–6 = Balanced, over 6 = Buyer's. Temperature: vs. each county's own history for the same month (50 = typical; over 60 hotter, under 40 cooler than usual). August temperatures recalculated with the current method.
Zillow still expects growth
Zillow's 12-month forecasts rose again, to roughly +3% to +4% for most counties (up from +2–2.8% last month). Monmouth leads at +4.2%, followed by Ocean (+3.5%) and Bergen (+3.4%); Mercer trails at +0.6%. These forecasts use data through August, before rates crossed 7%, so they're best read as an upper bound until next month's update.
What to watch in October
October is the first month when contracts signed at 7%+ start closing. DOM and sale-to-list will show the rate effect before prices do.
Hudson is at 6.0 months of supply. One more step and it becomes the first Buyer's Market of 2026. Essex, the bidding-war capital, is at 3.9 months, right at the Seller's/Balanced line.
Listings have risen seven straight months (since February). If that continues into the holidays, winter could be the best buying window in years.
Find your county
All 12 county dashboards now have September 2026 data: 13-month price charts, DOM trends, inventory, price per sqft by city, and the new market type and temperature readings.
- Morris County: tightest supply of the 12 (2.5 months), top temperature (60)
- Essex County: 104.4% sale-to-list, still the bidding-war capital
- Hudson County: +11.4% YoY, but 6.0 months of supply and selling at asking
- Monmouth County: fastest DOM of the 12 (25 days), highest Zillow forecast
- Union County: still a Seller's Market, cooled to 55
- Somerset County: 2.8 months of supply, 31-day DOM
- Bergen County: $761K, priciest county, now Balanced
- Passaic County: weakest price momentum, strongest demand
- Ocean County: most inventory, still below asking, biggest cool-down since June
- Burlington County: $400K, most affordable of the 12
- Middlesex County: longest DOM of the 12 (75 days), now Balanced
- Mercer County: largest price decline (−3.5% YoY)
A cooling market with rising rates calls for a different playbook than the summer did. Book a free consultation and we'll go through your county's September numbers together.
Related reading
- NJ Real Estate Market Report — August 2026: when the cooling started
- Mortgage Rates & Treasury Yields Explained: what drives mortgage rates
- NJ Down Payment Assistance for First-Time Buyers
- Mortgage Calculator: see what 7%+ rates mean for your payment
